The dish: the foals stampede

I told you.

All season I’ve looked like shit. I’ve warned you about soft high school in Indianapolis. I told them that any team that relies on Corey Simon to be at the center of their defensive rebuilding effort is sure to be disappointed. I’ve pointed to the ridiculously easy schedule of the first half and the windfalls the Colts had when late-season opponents like New England and Jacksonville suffered key injuries the week before Indy played them. I have chosen them so many times that, quite surely, all Americans living in the 317 area code have, at some point in the last four months, called my home. (How are you getting my number, Southerners anyway?) But I stood my ground and picked the Steelers to win last weekend.

Sweet vindication. Someone finally made the Colts look sick. Is Peyton Manning a very good quarterback? Yes. Are the Colts’ skill players as good as anyone else’s skill players? Yes. But is that defense really one of the best in the league? Absolutely, positively not. The corners are normal. Bob Sanders is a good player against the run, but he couldn’t cover Bea Arthur in a passing pattern. Dwight Freeney is a monster when he’s one-on-one and downright invisible when he’s not (which is the fate of extremely light defensive ends). No one else on the defensive line really scares you. It’s possible to line up on either side of the ball, hit the Colts in the mouth, and make them sound extremely loud. Did you see Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne complain on every play? That’s what comes when Ike Taylor repeatedly pops you in your mouth.

Indy’s problem is the same as always: too much offense, not enough defense. Too fine, little muscle. Too much complexity with the ball, too much vanilla without the ball. It’s a tremendous recipe for regular season success. But against very good and physical teams at a decisive moment?

I told you.

What do you think of the Colts’ downfall? Is Peyton Manning just not an accurate and stable enough quarterback to beat very good teams in big games?

Greg Jorssen, BoDog.com: People already say that Peyton is the Dan Marino of this generation – a guy who has tremendous talent, but doesn’t have what it takes to do it when it matters most. Remember: the University of Tennessee didn’t win a National Championship until a year after Manning left. I don’t think there is any doubt that Peyton’s time will come when he will lead his team to victory in games when it matters most. Let’s remember that people were saying that about Elway for 14 years before the big one finally won. My biggest concern with Peyton is not what he can do and what he will eventually do on the field. This is how he behaves after a crushing defeat. He made a lot of remarks in postgame interviews, blaming the loss not on himself but on his offensive line. Lots of “me” and “them” while in Denver, Tom Brady said a lot “us” after his devastating loss to the Broncos. At the end of the day, Manning has the heart, he definitely has the passion and the skill. I think his downfall at the moment is simply that he cares so much about winning that he just can’t relax on the field and just play.

I told you those Indy and Seattle lines were too big. What was the net result of the Indy game, in particular, in terms of handicap? And how did the books fare over the Divisional Round weekend overall?

GJ, BoDog.com: Seattle’s line was perfect, actually: they closed as favorites by nine points and won by 10. Indy’s result was good for us. At the beginning of the week, the stock was fairly balanced; however, we received a lot of money on the Colts closer to the start, which made us huge fans of the Steelers when the game started. Overall, it was a crazy weekend, as punters liked the road dog in three of the four games. With Pittsburgh winning straight, Seattle covering, Denver winning straight and three of the four lost games overall, the book had a very strong weekend.

What do you expect from the conference championships, both from a “real” and a game perspective?

GJ, BoDog.com: Another weird weekend is coming, in which we’ll be cheering on the two local favorites. Bettors still love the Panthers, with two-thirds of the control so far placed in Carolina to cover +4. As for the Steelers and Broncos, the action is fairly balanced, with a slight lead over Pittsburgh covering +3. Both games have bettors who believe the score will exceed the posted totals of 43.5 and 41, respectively. From a real perspective, I think something has to give seriously with both games. Pittsburgh’s road record for the past two years is 15-3 (8-2 this year), and they will face the Broncos, who are a perfect 9-0 at home. In the NFC, the Panthers’ road record this year is also 8-2, and they are visiting the undefeated at home Seattle Seahawks.

I think the Panthers are playing with enough excitement to take them to the Super Bowl. His defense is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, and I don’t think Seattle has a corner that can stop Steve Smith. This one should be close, but I’m predicting a surprise from Panther. As for the AFC, speaking of excitement, how can you not believe that the Steelers will continue their momentum until the Super Bowl? His lightning attack on Sunday brought down the mighty Colts, and I think the trend of upsets in the postseason will continue. It’s very possible that two teams will match the 1986 Patriots’ feat by winning three straight road games to enter the title game.

Soccer certainly dominates my thoughts right now, but with the NCAA hoops heating up, are punters paying attention yet? Where do they seem to be putting their money? What do you think will drive the main trends in March?

GJ, BoDog.com – Bettors are paying more attention to games, especially now that they are at conferences. One trend that is clearly obvious so far is that once powerful conferences are no longer as dominant as they were in years past. In the ACC, after Duke, there really is no team that can hurt this year in the tournament. It’s not unrealistic to think that the Blue Devils can run the table in conference play. There are no national championship contenders in Pac 10, only Florida in the SEC, and of course Texas in the Big 12. The exceptions to this trend are the Big East and Big 10, who are incredibly talented at the top of their conferences. We no longer have the dominant teams that we once did, leading one to believe that parity is quite evident in college hoops, more than ever. I mean, think about it. When was the last time you remember Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky losing the same night and all at their home courts? All this will turn it into a wild March Madness tournament, where we will see a lot of surprises.