The case of Chris Williams

Chris Williams’ career began in Chicago with controversy. Before even appearing in a game, he was out with a back injury he had before he entered the NFL. Yet again, another wasted first-round pick by the Bears, or so it seemed. Today, Chris Williams remains a controversial player. He has yet to live up to his draft status and, according to most scouts, his potential. Now, with Frank Oyimale appearing to have cemented his role as LT and veteran LG Roberto Garza returning from injury, the Bears face a personal decision. Are they keeping young Chris Williams in the LG lineup or even LT for the rest of the season? Or do the veterans start and bench Williams?

In this post, I discuss whether the Bears should keep Williams in the starting lineup. To answer this question, I looked at the Bears’ running and passing stats. What I wanted to see is whether the Bears ran the ball and protected the quarterback better with or without Williams. And what I discovered is that, at least statistically, the Bears aren’t much better with or without Williams in the lineup.

Let’s look at the career statistics. In three complete games (Detroit, Seattle and Washington) and the only series Williams played in Dallas, the Bears have averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the left side of the line. By contrast, with Williams out, the Bears are averaging 6.3 yards per carry on the left side. This is roughly a 10 percent increase in productivity, not a substantial improvement, but an improvement nonetheless.

Let’s look at the passing game. Rating pass blocking was a bit more difficult than the running game, given the limited availability of stats. So I decided to keep it simple and just look at the number of sacks per game with and without Williams. In games with Williams starting, the Bears allow 3.75 sacks per game. In games without Williams, they allow 4 sacks per game. This is a 6.6 percent increase in sacks when Williams doesn’t play.

Given these statistics, it would seem that the Bears are neither better nor worse with Williams playing. So what to do with Williams now that Garza is back?

In my opinion, it is important that young players have playing time so that they develop their full potential. Williams, due to injuries and position changes, has not received enough playing time for coaches to assess whether he can start in the NFL. Putting Garza back in the lineup will likely improve the running game, but not much.

What do you all think? Should coaches give Williams more time to develop? Are the Bears a better team with or without him?